Guwahati: Amid China’s aggressive drive to harness hydroelectric power through massive dam projects, growing concerns are being voiced over the potential fallout for downstream nations, particularly India and Bhutan. At the centre of the controversy is China’s ongoing project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river — known as the Brahmaputra once it enters Arunachal Pradesh and Assam — and its possible consequences for water flow, ecology, and geopolitical stability in the region.
Neeraj Singh Manhas, Advisor at the Parley Policy Initiative, has sounded the alarm over China’s dam-building activities on the Tibetan plateau, stressing that while China may frame the move as part of its renewable energy transition, the downstream implications are serious.
Citing past events, Manhas reminded that in 2000, a dam breach in Tibet unleashed widespread devastation in the Northeast. A similar incident in 2017 saw the Brahmaputra turning black — a phenomenon researchers linked to unregulated mining in the upper Tibetan regions, which lie at altitudes of 4,000–5,000 metres.
“The Yangtze Dam displaced nearly 1.3 billion people,” Manhas noted, highlighting the massive scale of China’s previous projects and their social cost, particularly for indigenous Tibetan populations.
Though Bhutan is geographically upstream of the Brahmaputra, Chhimi Dorji of the Evaluation Association of Bhutan stated that the risks cannot be overlooked. “Such massive dam structures carry potential for disaster. A technical fault or a natural event like an earthquake could lead to catastrophic flooding downstream,” Dorji said.
He also emphasized the spiritual loss, as both Indian and Tibetan communities consider the region sacred. “The cultural heritage of the region is at stake,” he warned.
The transboundary nature of the Brahmaputra makes China’s unilateral actions particularly sensitive. Environmentalists caution that large upstream dams can severely alter natural water flow, reduce sedimentation vital for farming, and increase the risk of flash floods — especially in vulnerable states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
Additionally, many of these river basins are sacred to local populations. Any disturbance to their natural flow not only risks ecological imbalance but also cultural erosion.
Amid these growing environmental and strategic concerns, Dorji reflected on the exemplary India-Bhutan relationship. As a recipient of an Indian government scholarship, he praised the deep people-to-people and institutional trust that underpins the bilateral relationship. “It’s one of the strongest collaborations in the region,” he said.
As China continues its upstream projects, India and Bhutan are watching closely — not just out of environmental caution but also geopolitical necessity. With the Brahmaputra being a lifeline for millions in the Northeast, ensuring its stability and sanctity remains a top priority for both governments and communities. The challenge now is navigating the delicate balance between diplomacy, development, and safeguarding natural and cultural heritage.
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