Guwahati: Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on July 21 sought to ease anxieties surrounding China’s recently launched $167.8 billion hydropower project on the Brahmaputra River. Despite mounting concerns over its potential impact on India’s northeastern states, Sarma maintained that there was no immediate cause for alarm, stressing the Brahmaputra’s diverse water sources.
Speaking to reporters here, Sarma acknowledged the uncertainty shrouding the colossal Chinese undertaking. However, he asserted that the Brahmaputra’s robustness meant it wasn’t solely dependent on Tibetan origins. “I am not immediately worried because Brahmaputra is a mighty river and it is not dependent on a single source (of water),” he stated.
The Chief Minister’s comments come just two days after Chinese Premier Li Qiang formally inaugurated construction in Nyingchi City, Tibet, close to the India-China border in Arunachal Pradesh. The ambitious project is set to feature five cascade hydropower stations, with a projected annual electricity generation of over 300 billion kilowatt-hours, capable of powering more than 300 million people.
The sheer magnitude of the project, poised to dwarf even China’s Three Gorges Dam, has raised red flags among hydrological experts, environmentalists, and policymakers in India and Bangladesh. Fears linger that it could disrupt water flow and amplify vulnerabilities during periods of geopolitical strain.
When questioned about the specific ramifications for Assam, Sarma candidly admitted, “It is not yet known whether it will be good or bad.” He underscored that a substantial portion of the Brahmaputra’s flow into Assam is derived from Arunachal Pradesh, Bhutan, and local rainwater. “Brahmaputra gets most of its waters from Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh, and the rainwater and other forms of water from our state itself,” he elaborated.
Sarma also pointed out the scientific community’s differing views on the dam’s potential consequences. “First — if Brahmaputra’s flow is disturbed by China, then there may be less water and consequently biodiversity will be affected. But there is also a counter view that if less water comes, it will also act as a flood cushioning,” he remarked, concluding, “So, I don’t know which one is correct.”
Adding to the complexities, the dam is being built in a geologically sensitive zone, perilously close to a tectonic plate boundary, where earthquakes are a frequent occurrence. The project site is situated at the Brahmaputra’s dramatic U-turn from Tibet into Arunachal Pradesh, making it one of the world’s rainiest and most seismically active regions.
The geopolitical ramifications are also significant. Critics caution that China could potentially manipulate water flow in times of conflict, to the detriment of downstream nations. India, in a perceived strategic countermeasure, is developing its own hydropower project on the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh.
When asked about the Indian government’s engagement on the matter, Sarma expressed confidence, stating, “I am sure that the Centre must already be having a discussion with China or will have a discussion with the neighbouring country.” He further added that the Centre is “a better judge on this topic” and would take appropriate action.
Currently, India and China engage on trans-border river issues through the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM), a dialogue platform established in 2006 for sharing hydrological data and addressing concerns. Data sharing concerning the Brahmaputra has periodically been a key point in high-level bilateral discussions, including the December 2024 meeting between India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.